產(chǎn)能過剩 一場席卷全球水泥行業(yè)的危機

  The global cement industry today employs 1.2 million people and has production capacity of around 6.2 billion t. However, it suffers from substantial overcapacity issues: it is estimated that current capacity can already fulfil the world’s needs for the next 20 years at least.全球水泥行業(yè)目前擁有120萬員工，產(chǎn)能約為62億噸。它正面臨著嚴(yán)重的產(chǎn)能過剩問題：據(jù)估計，目前的產(chǎn)能至少可以滿足未來20年的全球水泥需求。

  Since the turn of the century, driven in large part by China’s domestic boom, global cement capacity has increased exponentially, nearly tripling over the last two decades. Meanwhile, the number of producers has grown to more than 5000.自世紀(jì)之交以來，由于中國國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)的蓬勃發(fā)展，全球水泥產(chǎn)能呈指數(shù)增長，在過去的二十年中增長了近三倍。同時，生產(chǎn)商的數(shù)量已增長到5000多個。

  Although in periods of high demand, this increased capacity could mostly be absorbed, we have seen sluggish demand in recent years, creating global excess capacity, especially in China, Europe, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Middle East. This is the result of a longer-than-expected global recession following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, combined with major regional political and economic instability: the 2010/11 Eurozone debt crisis, the Arab spring, a slowdown in the Chinese economy, and collapsing commodity prices.盡管在需求旺盛時期，過多的產(chǎn)能大部分可以被吸收，但近年來我們看到需求低迷造成全球產(chǎn)能過剩，特別是在中國、歐洲、東地中海和中東地區(qū)。這是由于2008年全球金融危機之后的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退超出預(yù)期，加上部分地區(qū)政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)不穩(wěn)定：2010-2011年度歐元區(qū)債務(wù)危機，阿拉伯之春，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩以及商品價格崩潰。

  This excess capacity and demand shortage have combined to trigger a race to the bottom among cement manufacturers, dragging down prices in domestic and international markets. Low utilisation rates have also pushed up fixed costs per unit, while the hike in coal and petcoke prices towards the end of 2016 put further pressure on margins. As a result, companies have seen a drastic slump in their earnings, with returns just above or even below the cost of capital, with some beginning to burn through cash reserves.產(chǎn)能過剩和需求短缺，引發(fā)了水泥生產(chǎn)商之間的競爭，拉低國內(nèi)和國際市場的價格。低利用率也推高了單位固定成本，而2016年底煤炭和石油焦價格上漲進(jìn)一步壓縮了利潤率。結(jié)果，水泥企業(yè)的收益大幅下滑，收益率剛剛高于，甚至低于資本成本，有些企業(yè)開始損耗現(xiàn)金儲備。

  Current overcapacity continues to increase and is negatively distorting global cement markets, though the impact does vary across regions. Currently China has the greatest excess capacity with 895 million t, representing 45% of global overcapacity, of which only a fraction is earmarked for export due to higher inland logistics costs. 盡管各地區(qū)的產(chǎn)能過剩影響不盡相同，但目前的產(chǎn)能過剩問題日益突出，并對全球水泥市場產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響?，F(xiàn)在中國的產(chǎn)能過剩最高，達(dá)到了8.95億噸，占全球產(chǎn)能過剩的45％。并且，由于內(nèi)陸物流成本較高，中國只有一小部分水泥用于出口。

  Meanwhile, Europe has a capacity-to-consumption ratio of 200%, the highest in the world. In addition to low demand in the region, political pressure to reduce CO2 emissions and CO2 emission allowance programmes have helped keep capacity utilisation rates low.同時，歐洲的產(chǎn)能／消費率達(dá)到200％，是世界上最高的。該地區(qū)除了低需求外，減少二氧化碳排放量和二氧化碳排放配額計劃的政治壓力也有助于保持較低的產(chǎn)能利用率。

  Developing regions, such as India, Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, have seen significant capacity growth over the last decade, representing more than twice the equivalent growth in consumption. Despite a capacity-to-consumption ratio of more than 150% in these regions, further capacity expansion is still anticipated. Southeast Asian (including Indian) manufacturers plan to add more than 100 million t of capacity by 2018, while 50 million t of new capacity is planned for Sub-Sharan Africa, mainly in Tanzania, Kenya, and Nigeria.發(fā)展中地區(qū)，如印度，東南亞，撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)和拉丁美洲，在過去十年中，產(chǎn)能也顯著增長，為相應(yīng)消費增長的兩倍多。盡管這些地區(qū)的產(chǎn)能／消費比例超過150％，但仍有望進(jìn)一步擴大產(chǎn)能。東南亞（包括印度）制造商計劃在2018年增加1億噸以上的產(chǎn)能，同時計劃為撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)（主要是坦桑尼亞，肯尼亞和尼日利亞）提供5000萬噸的新產(chǎn)能。

  Political turmoil and low oil prices over the past three years have severely reduced domestic cement demand in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, resulting in large excess capacity. The lack of export markets in neighbouring countries across the Eastern Mediterranean region in particular, where Turkey remains a major exporter with 10 million t of export volume, has created a regional exportable surplus.過去三年的政治動蕩和低油價嚴(yán)重降低了東地中海和中東地區(qū)的國內(nèi)水泥需求，導(dǎo)致了大量過剩產(chǎn)能。東地中海地區(qū)的鄰國缺乏出口市場，特別是土耳其仍然是出口量達(dá)1000萬噸的主要出口國，因此創(chuàng)造了區(qū)域性出口盈余。

  Recent project announcements indicate that, in the years ahead, domestic producers in Turkey, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia will expand their operations. This new capacity will be coming online, even as demand remains subdued, contributing to further growth in exportable surplus.最近的項目公告顯示，未來幾年，土耳其、埃及、伊拉克、伊朗和沙特阿拉伯的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)商將擴大業(yè)務(wù)。由于新增產(chǎn)能正在擴建中，即使需求依然疲弱，這有助于進(jìn)一步增加可出口的盈余。

  In the long term, current excess capacity in developing regions is expected to shrink to some extent, as demand for urbanisation increases over time. However, mature markets, such as Europe and North America, will continue to struggle with this surplus for some time, even though new capacity growth will be extremely limited.從長遠(yuǎn)來看，城市化需求隨著時間的推移而增加，發(fā)展中地區(qū)目前的產(chǎn)能過剩預(yù)計會有所縮小。 然而，即使新的產(chǎn)能增長極其有限，歐洲和北美等成熟市場仍將繼續(xù)為這一盈余掙扎一段時間。

  The problem of overcapacity has been experienced by different industries throughout history and still continues to be a crucial threat for many. Notable examples include the UK’s steel industry in the 1980s, the global freight market today, China’s steel industry, the worldwide oil market, airlines, and the fishing industry. In their search for a solution, different industries can learn from one another, though some aspects of the challenge can also be very sector-specific.歷史上不同行業(yè)都經(jīng)歷過產(chǎn)能過剩的問題，并且仍然是許多行業(yè)的重要威脅。值得注意的例子包括英國80年代的鋼鐵業(yè)，當(dāng)今的全球貨運市場，中國的鋼鐵業(yè)，全球的石油市場，航空公司和漁業(yè)。在尋找解決方案時，不同的行業(yè)可以互相學(xué)習(xí)。

  Cement, with its cost efficiency, energy efficiency, and very long durability, is a unique product and has no real substitute. Moreover, the industry is very capital intensive, so has a lower ROCE than other industries. It is also highly regional in nature, due to relatively high land-based transportation and distribution costs. Because of this, strategies for the cement sector can differ from other industries.水泥是具有成本效益，能源效率和耐久性的一種獨特的產(chǎn)品，并沒有真正的替代品。而且，這個行業(yè)的資本密集程度非常高，因此比其他行業(yè)的ROCE低。相對較高的陸地運輸和分銷成本，這也是高度區(qū)域性的。因此，水泥行業(yè)的戰(zhàn)略可能與其他行業(yè)不同。

  China: an industry leader

  中國：行業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者

  With a slowdown in China’s economy, the first real attempts to resolve the issue of excess capacity are being put in motion. The Chinese government and China Cement Association have started to encourage companies to cooperate more, in particular through joint investment enterprises, while state-owned enterprises are growing through mergers and acquisitions. Even though a joint investment enterprise might be considered an anti-competitive agreement, Chinese anti-monopoly law allows for such actions under certain circumstances, for example, if the goal is deemed to be in the public interest, such as reducing high levels of emissions.隨著中國經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩，首次真正嘗試解決產(chǎn)能過剩的問題正在展開。中國政府和中國水泥協(xié)會已經(jīng)開始鼓勵企業(yè)加大合作力度，特別是通過組建聯(lián)合投資公司的方式進(jìn)行合作，而國有企業(yè)則通過兼并和收購來增長。 雖然聯(lián)合投資有可能被視為反競爭協(xié)議，但中國反壟斷法允許在某些情況下采取此類行動，例如，如果目標(biāo)被視為符合公共利益，如降低高排放水平。

  Additionally, the China Cement Association has recently made a policy recommendation to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to establish a fund, supported by private companies, to speed up consolidation by compensating firms for losses incurred when leaving the industry and closing their production lines.另外，中國水泥協(xié)會最近向工業(yè)和信息化部提出了一項政策建議，建立一個由私營公司支持的基金，通過補償企業(yè)關(guān)閉損失和關(guān)閉生產(chǎn)線時遭受的損失來加速合并。

  The national industry target for 2020 is to concentrate at least 60% of Chinese overall capacity into the top 10 manufacturers. This will be followed by a shutdown of idle capacity to ensure efficient resource allocation, and finally a plan to increase utilisation rates to 80% from 68% by reducing 400 million t of capacity. In the long term, once this local consolidation reaches a certain level, Chinese producers are very likely to benefit from a massive increase in cash generation, giving them greater resources to embark on more aggressive overseas expansion.2020年的國家工業(yè)目標(biāo)是將至少60％的中國總產(chǎn)能集中到前10位制造商。隨后關(guān)閉閑置容量以確保有效的資源分配，最后計劃通過減少4億噸的容量將利用率從68％提高到80％。 從長遠(yuǎn)來看，一旦這種地方合并達(dá)到一定程度，中國生產(chǎn)商很可能從現(xiàn)金增值的大幅增加中獲益，從而為他們提供更多資源，以進(jìn)行更積極的海外擴張。

  While China is taking immediate and drastic measures to optimise production capacity and reduce the environmental exposure of the cement industry, with a view to creating higher profitability and lower emissions, Europe and the Middle East still seem unable to decide upon fast and efficient solutions to implement themselves.中國正在采取緊急措施來優(yōu)化生產(chǎn)能力并減少水泥行業(yè)的環(huán)境風(fēng)險，以期創(chuàng)造更高的盈利能力和更低的排放量，歐洲和中東似乎仍無法決定實施快速有效的解決方案。

  Europe and North America: lagging behind

  歐洲和北美：滯后

  In Europe, the region with the highest capacity-consumption ratio, a recovery in 2018 seems likely, but discussions are still shaky and far from reaching any implementable solution. In the long term, it is however expected that around 200 million t of idle capacity, as well as the number of kilns, will decline considerably thanks to plant shutdowns. Experts predict that, in landlocked areas, only eco-friendly, high-tech, and optimised plants will remain, while coastal areas will meet their needs through grinding mills and clinker imports. Here, the Eastern Mediterranean region could become a main supplier thanks to its large exportable surplus.在歐洲，能源消費比例最高的地區(qū)似乎有可能在2018年出現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇，但仍不穩(wěn)定，遠(yuǎn)未達(dá)成任何可實施的解決方案。然而，從長遠(yuǎn)來看，由于工廠關(guān)閉，預(yù)計約2億噸的閑置產(chǎn)能和窯爐數(shù)量將大幅下降。專家預(yù)測，在內(nèi)陸地區(qū)，只有環(huán)保，高科技和優(yōu)化的工廠才會保留，而沿海地區(qū)將通過磨礦廠和熟料進(jìn)口滿足他們的需求。在這里，東地中海地區(qū)可以成為主要供應(yīng)商，因為其大量的可出口盈余。

  Nevertheless, this transition and restructuring of the European cement industry will not be easy and happen only as a result of natural market dynamics. In spite of recent consolidations between the cement industry giants, the industry still needs to see some more major M&A transactions.盡管如此，歐洲水泥行業(yè)的這種轉(zhuǎn)型和重組并不容易，而這只是自然的市場動態(tài)。盡管近期有水泥行業(yè)巨頭并購案例發(fā)生，但行業(yè)仍需要看到更多重大并購交易。

  And while the current interventions to combat climate change, covered by the EU’s free CO2 allocation and trading system, are helping control and reduce CO2 emissions, this is also causing a slowdown in the consolidation that will ultimately serve to increase overall production efficiency in the cement industry by creating a windfall gain for small companies. Therefore industry associations, in line with public interest and together with the European Commission, should support the cement industry to undertake the restructuring that is so urgently required.目前由歐盟的免費二氧化碳分配和交易系統(tǒng)支持，針對氣候變化的干預(yù)措施正在幫助控制和減少二氧化碳排放，但這也會導(dǎo)致整合速度放慢，最終將提高水泥的整體生產(chǎn)效率，為小公司創(chuàng)造意外收益。因此，符合公眾利益的行業(yè)協(xié)會和歐盟委員會應(yīng)支持水泥行業(yè)進(jìn)行迫切需要的重組。

  The North American countries, mainly the US, have similar problems to Europe, with their spare cement capacity and political pressure for CO2 limitations at state level, though they do not have a country-wide trading system to limit CO2emissions. For the region more generally, greater flexibility on imports, as well as further consolidation, are key areas for improvement. Particularly for the coastal regions, more open international trading can provide significant benefits to the industry.北美洲國家，主要是美國，與歐洲有類似的問題，他們的剩余水泥產(chǎn)能和政府對二氧化碳限制的壓力處于州級別，盡管他們沒有全國范圍的貿(mào)易體系來限制二氧化碳排放。更通俗的說，更大程度的進(jìn)出口靈活性，以及進(jìn)一步的整合是需要改進(jìn)的關(guān)鍵領(lǐng)域。特別是對于沿海地區(qū)來說，更開放的國際貿(mào)易可以為行業(yè)帶來顯著的效益。

  Cement trading: room for improvement

  水泥貿(mào)易：可改進(jìn)的空間

  International cement trading ensures more efficient allocation and better utilisation of global resources, so can be a very useful tool in overcoming the global excess capacity problem. This is particularly important for capital-intensive and highly-localised industries like cement, where regional volatility can have a rapid and significant impact on demand, leaving producers with idle and costly resources that undermine long-term stability.國際水泥貿(mào)易能夠確保更有效的分配和更好地利用全球資源，因此可以成為解決全球產(chǎn)能過剩問題的非常有用的工具。對于像水泥這樣的資本密集型和高度區(qū)域化的行業(yè)而言，這尤其重要，因為區(qū)域波動可能對需求產(chǎn)生快速而重大的影響，導(dǎo)致生產(chǎn)商閑置且耗資巨大，破壞了長期穩(wěn)定性。

  However, recent protectionist policies, such as non-automatic licenses or tariffs, in many countries have hindered international cement trade, driving global overcapacity up. Today international trade meets only 5% of global cement consumption demand, with a volume of 200 million t. This shows there is plenty of room to improve and, ultimately, a great opportunity to reduce the scale of the overcapacity problem.然而，許多國家最近的保護(hù)主義政策（如非自動許可證或關(guān)稅）阻礙了國際水泥貿(mào)易，導(dǎo)致全球產(chǎn)能過剩。 今天，2億噸的國際貿(mào)易僅占全球水泥消費需求的5％， 這表明有很大的提升空間，是減少產(chǎn)能過剩問題規(guī)模的絕好機會。

  Conclusion

  結(jié)論

  Unfortunately, overcapacity is not yet being treated as a serious issue, though this is likely to change if and when the industry faces a downturn in consumption volumes. Such a scenario could be precipitated by a gradual increase of global interest rates, including the LIBOR and EURIBOR, resulting in a period of stagnation in cement consumption volumes. This in turn might lead to a period of consolidation, where the overcapacity problem could hurt the global players, depending on their financial and geographical exposure.不幸的是，產(chǎn)能過剩尚未被視為一個嚴(yán)重問題，盡管如果行業(yè)面臨消費量下滑，這種情況可能會改變。全球利率逐步上升，包括倫敦銀行同業(yè)拆息利率和銀行同業(yè)拆借利率，導(dǎo)致水泥消費量停滯不前。這反過來又可能導(dǎo)致一段時間的并購重組，其中產(chǎn)能過剩問題可能會損害全球參與者，損害程度取決于他們的財務(wù)和地理風(fēng)險。

  Overcapacity currently represents the biggest challenge for the global cement industry and is a significant issue in many countries. However, right now, it seems that China is the only country fighting against this threat, and has established its own methods for doing so. This issue is particularly acute for mature markets with very low capacity utilisation rates, such as Europe. Despite clear lack of leadership, these countries need to join the fight immediately, taking collective, decisive and effective action to secure a more prosperous and secure cement industry for the long term.目前，產(chǎn)能過剩是全球水泥行業(yè)面臨的最大挑戰(zhàn)，也是許多國家的一個重大問題。但是，現(xiàn)在看來，中國是唯一一個與這種威脅作斗爭的國家，并且已經(jīng)建立了自己的方法。對于歐洲等產(chǎn)能利用率很低的成熟市場來說，這個問題尤其突出。這些國家需要立即參與斗爭，采取集體、果斷和有效的行動，以確保水泥行業(yè)長期能更加繁榮和安全。